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Gavi’s market shaping efforts aim to make life-saving vaccines and other immunisation products more accessible and affordable for lower-income countries. Healthy markets for vaccines and other immunisation products allow manufacturers to plan production based on known demand, donors to maximise their investments and, lower- and middle-income countries to buy suitable products at prices they can afford. 

CEPA was appointed by Gavi to conduct an evaluation of the 2016-20 Supply and Procurement Strategy (their market shaping strategy). This large-scale evaluation involved an assessment of the design, implementation and results of the strategy. Considering the extent to which Gavi has achieved its market shaping objectives, it provided a review of lessons learned and provided recommendations to the Alliance on how they could facilitate market shaping in markets going forward.  

CEPA initially developed a theory of change of the Strategy to identify its pathways to impact. Based on this theory of change, CEPA then conducted a desk-based document review; key informant interviews of global stakeholders as well as stakeholders in 10 countries (Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Tanzania); individual analysis of key trends and activities in vaccine markets; quantitative data analysis of key market metrics; and a counterfactual analysis of results to determine the additionality of the Alliance’s market shaping support.  

The findings and recommendations from the evaluation were used by Gavi as the basis for developing their future market shaping strategy for the Gavi 5.0, the Alliance’s 2021-25 strategic period.

The Final Report can be downloaded here.